Economic losses out of military-political conflicts can be measured precisely in rubles: the outflow of capital, reduction of the stock market’s capitalization, amounts from the budget spent on the war and on liquidation of its consequences. However, there are deeper consequences that are impossible to count exactly, but still possible to foresee. 

Economic sanctions by the US and the EU could become an immediate threat. However, nothing of that kind has happened so far. That’s easy to explain. The fact is that governments of the western countries try to watch over the interests of the national business, even when they do not coincide with political attitudes.

Many European companies, including the leading ones, are interested in working in Russia. In case the EU had imposed sanctions, it’s easy to assume that our authority would not be deliberating long and would make it “a kind of YUKOS” for daughters of the European large businesses here. Of course, both sides would have suffered losses, but Europeans and Americans always try to avoid losing money when it is possible.    

Many experts considered freezing the talks of joining WTO by Russia as a kind of sanction. Our officials’ reaction did not take long and was formulated like anyway we were not wanted there too much, and for many years we only have been fed with promises, so it’s no pity. This is the logic by a man who has been courting a woman for 5 years, and just on the eve of the wedding day he goes on a drinking jag, after which he announces that the marriage is a useless thing. Really, one may argue a lot whether Russia needs WTO or not, but the fact is that in recent years we have been striving for getting there. Or has it been just a cover operation?   

In reality, the foreign business circles may take (actually, they have already taken) some measures that are much more painful for the Russian economy than the imaginary sanctions. Let’s see for example the fall in the home stock markets. The basic reason for that was withdrawal by foreign investors from the Russian assets. It is important to understand why they left. Neither The White House nor Foreign Office instructed them to do so. They just were not able to do that. One cannot say that it’s military conflict and following it diplomatic tension that have caused such actions by investors. It has rather been a catalyst. As it is explained by representatives of the foreign financial structures, they have sold their assets in Russia because they need money to pay off debts that arose with everyone under conditions of the global crisis. However, they could not have done that without an obvious formal pretext, and then the Russia-Georgia conflict was a kind of it. Same applies to the situation about borrowing. As of today, the debt of the Russian corporate sector (and of the banking system above all) has exceeded half trillion dollars. Significant part of this fabulous amount must be returned by the domestic companies in this autumn. And they are not going to possess their own funds for doing that. The only way to avoid the factual default is getting re-credited in abroad. But this time they may be refused to do that, and without any hinting at politics, just with alleging the objective circumstances of the general lack of money.      

And in Russia, on the contrary, any steps, even most absurd from the economic point of view, can be given political and propagandist justification. This has already been done with the initiated by Putin ban on the import of American chicken meat, called in Russia “Bush’s drumsticks”. Allegedly, we have gained an easy victory over it, like it was about Georgian Borzhomi (a kind of popular mineral water also banned in Russia some time ago). So, if something happens, we shall be able to win a victory not only over Georgia, but also America…     

In short, while the West distinguishes skillfully its political and economic interests, our establishment huddles it together and does not even have a clear idea of what exactly our interests are about. This is why the question itself sounds silly asking who would lose more in case of more tensed confrontation.