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Politics
Each year the President looks different when meeting with the participants of the Valdai Forum. This time he was in benign mood and looked like a good-natured and hospitable host, who is confident about his future. When he came, we, I mean political scientists, were aligned and he shook hands with everyone. After dinner the President suggested going to his residency where we had informal talk without journalists and even without guards.
The President said he hasn't decided yet what his occupation will be after election of 2008 (I asked this question to him) and he doesn't know whether he will be engaged in politics or not. I incline to believe him.
Last year the President seemed to reflect of himself and all the happening in terms of philosophical categories (like the good and the evil, justice and injustice). This time he constantly spoke of social issues: quality of life, demography, health care, and wages. He seemed to have been under impression after his trip to the City of Belgorod. It was for the first time when he didn't look like a «political animal» and showed the humane side of his nature. Talking to me, Putin said he feels the pulse of the nation. «My ancestors have been living in a small village near Moscow since 16th century», he said. Having come out of flesh and blood of his people, he is concerned with the quality of peoples' lives, he said.
Putin remarked that the question of his successor is not that of great importance to him. What matters more is peoples' expectations and public support of a certain policy. «People don't care about foreign policy and macroeconomic indicators. The wages and pensions, health care and education are much more important for them. That's why people support what we are doing and whoever the next president was, he would have to go on with this social policy», he said.
I asked Putin if he is going to run for the presidency in 2012 and about his successor in 2008. Putin said «Russia doesn't need a weak President. I've been breaking my back for eight years not to pass the power to a weak one». I assumed that after 2008 Putin would remain an influencing political factor. Putin agreed. «The future president will have to take my opinion into account. So we will come to an agreement. It doesn't matter who is going to be the next, I just don't want him to turn out weak. He must be self-sufficient, effective, capable of responding to challenges formed in the society», he said. He continued about that, and then turned to social issues. I was disappointed with him ignoring my question of 2012 and passed a note to his secretary Alexei Gromov asking him to remind the President about my question. Suddenly Gromov handed my note to the President directly. The President said he couldn't look into the future so far, but he doesn't exclude the possibility of his running for the third term in 2012. «Though I hope to have been able to find an occupation interesting enough to go on with it beyond 2012. Do you think it's nice to sit in the Kremlin and read the nasty things that journalists write about me?» So on the one hand, the President gave to understand that he is ready to come back in 2012 and he thinks about it. On the other hand, being a normal politician, he couldn't answer directly.
I asked the President if there would be a new political element in the Russian political system along with Parliament and government, which would be named «Putin». He raised the brows and said «we will see». I reminded him that some political scientists say that Putin can't fail to leave as the leave of president with such a high rating would be another step by Russia to real democracy. But other experts say that Putin cannot leave as he is the centerpiece of too much and many. I asked what he thinks about that. He said that both groups are right so it's necessary to find the compromise between these two points of view.
Vladimir Putin also said about the new premier Zubkov. We couldn't understand if he was joking when giving instances of excellent work by Zubkov taken from the Soviet Union times. Putin remembered the old past when Zubkov was commissioned to run a backward collective farm and managed to do it the leading one for a while, then he was successful in running another backward state farm. Generally, Putin said, during the period when Zubkov managed the financial intelligence service and collected a great deal of materials, no businessman has grounds to complain that those materials were used dishonorably against him. Zubkov, Putin said, has never been engaged in politics, he managed only economic activities.
Putin was obviously disappointed with the activities by the previous government (not on personal level, but more with its structure). I reminded him that in Belgorod he said (all the media noticed that) about necessity of remaking the power structure. Now Putin said that he meant only government's structure. When you appoint ministers, they seem to be liberals and later, when there is no progress visible, they start to get mad at their subordinates because nothing seems to work well in the country, he said. He said, he doesn't want such a government.
We didn't ask what the President think about relations between Viktor Zubkov and Anatoly Serdyukov (the matter is that the new premier is defence minister's father-in-law). But co-director of Russian and Eurasian research under Harvard University Marshal Goldman asked the President about Patrushev's children careers. Putin answered with a joke of soviet times. «Can general's children become generals? Yes, they can. And can general's children become marshals? No, they can't, because marshals have their own kids». Putin added that, of course, it's necessary to struggle against nepotism but it's difficult to see everything. Of course, it's clear that Putin knows everything about Zubkov.
We talked long with Putin about macro economics. He seems to be proud that the situation in Russia has stabilized. Putin was speaking of Future Generations Fund and Stabilization Fund and about how independent the country has become financially. When asked, if he considers the export of oil and gas to be squandering of national property and if it would be better to reduce this export waiting for the prices to rise more, Putin said that, on the contrary, Russia would increase the volumes of the resources extracted and will try to make domestic prices proportional to the world market price.
Speaking of December election and party pluralism, Putin remarked sharply about all political parties except the United Russia and the Just Russia («The parties which I helped to create», he said). The President said he would unconditionally support the United Russia but he hasn't decided in which form this support would be («There is a tough and soft choice», he said). But he stressed he doesn't want to associated only with the United Russia, as this party has a lot of inner problems. The President didn't answer the question if he is going to join any party. He only said that the country needs a normal social democratic party, and if the United Russia didn't cope with social issues, it could be replaced with the Just Russia. Commenting the words by Vladislav Surkov that the United Russia has come to power for long, Putin said «I don't know. I don't work for Surkov. It's Surkov who works for me. But do you notice the liberal manners which we have in the President's Administration»? Putin said he is against parliamentary Republic, because Russia needs strong Presidential power. Along with that, Russia can't do without party pluralism and democracy.
Vladimir Putin also commented the popular expression «Russia is rising from its knees». He said «We shouldn't play the great power and ask for troubles. We need no messianic ideas, we already had all that at the beginning of the 20th century».
Generally, I felt that in spite of the amicable character of the conversations Putin has a hidden resentment against us, western political scientists. He has been spending much effort and energy for Russia's image to look better and it still doesn't. He said at the beginning of the meeting, that we have been meeting and talking for rather long and he doesn't see any outcomes, i.e. «nice image of Russia» for the West fails to be formed. That seems to hurt him at the end of the eight-year term of his office. Actually, he appears to be the man who is lucky in everything, who can win lotteries, in casinos, playing the races, win in politics and economic matters. But there is one thing he seems to have lost. This is Russia's reputation in abroad.
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