In 2002 a sensational audio tape, made by the security guard Nikolai Melnichenko in the office of that-time Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, burned up the world of news. On that tape, Leonid Kuchma discussed with Valery Maleev, the director of Ukrspezexport a question of selling opportunities of “Kolchuga” radars to Iraq. 

While the tape was mentioned only in relation to murder of a journalist Gongadze, no one wanted to check its authenticity. However, as soon as Kuchma began to speak there about Saddam Hussein, the experts from the US National Security Agency proved immediately the tape was authentic. After that, Kuchma underwent international obstruction.     

Afterwards, no “Kolchuga” radars were found in the course of the Iraq campaign, and that did not matter, though. When the orange revolution came, the world had no pity over “anti-people-acting” Kuchma, as his reputation had been hopelessly compromised by then. 

Now, a year before the next presidential elections, the today’s president is also getting accused of illegal arms dealing. Will the Kremlin be able to destroy Yushchenko’s reputation, like Washington managed to do with Kuchma? 

The interim investigative panel of the Verkhovnaya Rada for examining the weapon supplies to Georgia was made at the very first autumn session of the Ukrainian parliament on 2 September. However, the first preliminary conclusions had been announced by Viktor Yanukovich’s supporters even in August, right after the Caucasian war broke. It was stated that the arms were sold to Georgia with knock-down prices.  

The particular figures were published by the Panel’s chair Valery Konovaliuk last week. In 2007 74 tanks were sold to Georgia with the unit price of $250,000, while the market price per unit is $1,000,000. Other 15 tanks were bought by Tbilisi with the price of $135,000. The anti-aircraft complex “Buk M-1” was sold for $28 million, while Pakistan, as Mr. Konovaliuk affirms, was willing to pay $150,000,000. The piquancy of the moment is that the complex was taken away right from the combat duty from 223rd anti-aircraft regimen, situated in Lvov region. In 2008 the combat modules “Shkval” were sent to Georgia. That’s experimental weapon, designed in Zhitomir, which is not put in operation in the Ukrainian army yet.     

All the documents, quoted today by Konovaliuk, were classified. But the deputies knew where to search. The kickback amounts of Ukrspezexport, engaged in arms trading, have been known to Yanukovich since Kuchma’s times, as being a Prime Minister Yanukovich struggled for getting control over that enterprise. Today it’s Yulia Timoshenko to try taking it away from the President. She is also aware of what amount of money is at stake.   

And the statistics by Stockholm International Peaceful Research Institute, relating to sales of small arms, proves that Ukraine holds the first place in the world in terms of deliveries to “frozen” conflicts zones. In 2006-2007 it delivered to Georgia 3,040 revolvers and pistols, 2,730 rifles and carbines, 20,244 submachine guns. During same period, Kiev delivered 12,000 submachine guns to Chad, 101,500 submachine guns to Libya, 40,000 submachine guns to Kenya. The report points out that the destination, written in the shipping documents, not always may add up with that pointed in the contract, which undoubtedly makes the shadow price even higher.       

Significantly, the Ukrainian investigative panel timed its first briefing to the seizure of “Faina” ship by the Somali pirates. According to official data, communicated by the Secretary of the Security Council Raisa Bogatyreva, there are 33 tanks of T-72 model onboard, 6 sets of anti-aircraft launching systems ZPU-4, 150 grenade launchers, 6 “Grad” systems, about 13,000 ammunition units etc. Mr. Konovaliuk supposes all these weapons to have been illegally designated to arrive in the South Sudan, that is imposed sanctions upon it by the UNO, and not to Kenya which would be legal.      

However, the interest to investigation by the Ukrainian MPs got strengthened not in relation to pirates, but to the visit by Yulia Timoshenko to Moscow on 2 October. Oddly coincided, exactly on that day Izvestia newspaper published an article about Ukrainian weapons in Georgia, and then later a journalist from that periodical asked the related question to the Russian Prime Minister. The correspondents from Kiev, who accompanied Yulia Timoshenko to Moscow, affirm that Putin had been waiting for that question and his answer was very emotional, and later he returned to the topic twice.      

He called the arms deliveries to Georgia to be a crime against the Ukrainian people. “We do not know who took decisions about supplying the special materiel and weapons from Ukraine, during the course of the conflict itself. But whoever it has been, that person committed a big mistake. In case we find the evidence, we shall be building our contacts accordingly, with the people who did it” said Putin. 

Yulia Timoshenko, sitting next to Vladimir Putin, did not fail to remind that Ukrspezexport is controlled by the Ukrainian President. However, she expressed a hope that the facts of illegal supplies would not get confirmed. That day the Ukrainian Prime Minister was especially favorably keen on attacks by Putin on Yushchenko, as the former comrade had taken away the plane she was going to use to fly to Moscow, right at the Kiev’s airport. Having guessed the mood by his colleague, Vladimir Putin called Yushchenko a “rogue”. Allegedly, Yulia giggled at that.    

The influential website “Ukrainskaya pravda” informs, alleging to sources in the Russian government, that Putin is going to please Timoshenko not only with word attacking made on her offender. The arms scandal is going to develop, and the main stress will be put on finding evidence of smuggling of weapons to the fighting African states. Then it would be possible to make up a scandal similar to that of 5 years ago, after which Leonid Kuchma’s reputation was blotted forever.  

Could it become ground for impeachment? The official report is to be heard in the Verkhovnaya Rada after 2-3 weeks, unless Yushchenko has dissolved the Parliament by then. However, even the instinct of self-preservation does not provoke the deputies for sharp remarks.      

“Everyone is asking about Konoivaliuk today. And he is absent, busy with dealing with cases containing compromising evidence. He has such great facts…Well, it turns out that the whole war in Caucasus happened thanks to our Yushchenko” jokes Mikhail Chechetov at his party fellow.  

The follower of Yanukovich, Nestor Shufric is more serious. “In case it gets proved that the heavy materiel was sold to Georgia with reduced price and that Yushchenko’s family got financial dividend out of that, and in case it gets confirmed that our tanks were delivered to Sudan, that would be a pretext for holding the president criminally responsible” said Mr. Shufric. However, he did not risk pronouncing the “impeachment” word either. 

Timoshenko’s supporters are also behaving carefully. They still hope to restore the broken orange coalition. However, as soon the last hope dies, there is no doubt that Yulia will use the documents of the investigative panel. “Everything depends on what exactly is at Konovaliuk’s disposal.  If this is about real facts, then there will be consequences. It’s impossible to start a criminal case against Yushchenko, but nonetheless that would be a strong stroke on him” says the deputy from Timoshenko’s bloc, Andrei Shkil. 

Direct speech

Valery Konovaliuk is well aware that the report by his panel would have not only legal, but rather political response. He answered a few questions by a Novaya Gazeta correspondent.  

Q: Do you consider it that there are grounds to start a case against Yushchenko?

A: Well, it will be clear after vote in the Rada. Any decision is made with consensus. We would like first to meet with the President Yushchenko and ask him some questions, and only after that we could come to final conclusions. Most likely, the materials will be passed to the prosecutor general’s office.   

Q: The report of your panel is not ready yet, and you already are introducing a bill about moratorium for export of weapons. Your opponents consider it that you play on the Russian competitors’ side, depriving Ukraine of profits of $800 millions.   

A: Better ask me how much the Ukrainian budget gets out of selling the weapons? The amount is seven times less than that named by you. That must be closely examined. Our army requires many resources, and it needs rearmament first of all. Instead, we sell our modern anti-aircraft complexes to Georgia just for nothing, which affects seriously our defense capacity. 

Q: To your mind, what is more here in this story – politics or stealing? 

A: Export of armaments has always been a mix of stealing and politics. It’s difficult to judge about that. That might have not happened but for that seizure by pirates. It’s been for the first time that the pirates take a ship with tanks onboard. This is why doubts arose whether it had been a legal shipment. We must see into that and inform the Ukrainian society.    

Q: Why have you published initial conclusions right before the visit by the Ukrainian Prime Minister to Moscow? 

A: We promised to the Parliament that we would give a preliminary conclusion after a month. Our panel was made on 2 September. 2 October YuIia Timoshenko went to Moscow. I do not deny this can be just a coincidence. But the fact it happened does fit the general political situation.