The situation in trans-Caucasia has simplified politically and in military sense. South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity, who has fled to Java nearer to the Russian border from Tskhinvali, continues telling stories on the phone to journalists about battles going on. Actually, the Army of the self-proclaimed republic of South Ossetia has been swept away and more serious players are remaining – Russia, Georgia and Abkhazia. The latter have attacked the upper part of Kodori gorge, controlled by Georgians. The attack was done without any provocations, but with direct participation by Russian militaries. That way, on 9 August the second front was started against Georgia.      

Our planes are bombing Georgia; our tanks have penetrated Georgian territory; Georgian soldiers have shot back.

It is Russia-Georgia war going on, in the course of which the fate of the breakaway South Ossetia and Abkhazia will be decided.     

This war has been brewing for long, but the formal occasion was the blowing up a Georgian police car with a distant controlled IED near the settlement of Eredvi, east of Tskhinvali. Russian peacemakers had managed to investigate the case and established that two 122 mm howitzer shells of Russian production had been used. The police Toyota was damaged completely, while 5 Georgians in it got injured. That happened on 31 July. Earlier, on 4 July, right at the same place a similar device was used for blowing up the car where Dmitry Sanakoev, the head of pro-Georgian alternative administration of the South Ossetia, was driving. After the explosion the car was also shot at. However, Dmitry Sanakoev was not injured, while his bodyguards got wounded. Mr. Sanakoev used to be the defense minister in the separatist government of the South Ossetia, but afterwards he came to disagreement with President Kokoity and went over to the Georgian side with a group of faithful to him Ossetian gunmen. Kokoity and his supporters consider Sanakoev to be a betrayer.      

1 August Georgians stroke back at Ossetian positions, using the long distance big bores for the first time. The separatists, who had not expected that, incurred significant losses and responded with mortar firing at Georgian settlements, which was registered by Russian peacemakers. In the days to follow the Ossetians began to provoke actively a large-scale conflict, obviously trying to get Russia involved in it, and they quite succeeded in doing that.        

Kokoity made threatening statements saying he would clean the Georgian settlements in the South Ossetia. The Ossetian reinforcement was brought from the border with Ingushetia, from the zone of Ingushetia-Ossetia conflict. Volunteer muster began in the North Caucasus. Although Kokoity informed daily about serious fights with Georgians, Russian peacemakers confirmed that that was just invention or exaggeration. At the same time, Ossetians refused holding any talks with Georgians and required more insistently that direct Russian military interference take place.  

7 August Ossetians passed from words to deeds and began a hurricane mortar firing at Georgian settlements near Tskhinvali; the Ossetian peacemaker battalion took active part in that. By the evening of 7 August it had become known that Georgian’s casualties were 10 killed and 50 wounded, innocent civilians mostly.     

President Mikhail Saakashvili took a decision of canceling the announced unilateral armistice as it was not observed anyway. A decision was taken for starting the prepared long ago by Georgian militaries operation about defeating the Ossetian separatists in the region of Tskhinvali. There were and there are many of those willing to fight on the Georgian, Ossetian, Abkhazian and Russian sides so that to settle the complex ethnic issues in the battle field.   

8 August at midnight Georgian militaries began the army offensive operation in the South Ossetia and swept the Ossetian formations within a few hours. Ossetian villages and the heights around Tskhinvali were captured, while the block of government buildings in the center was ruined with aiming artillery fire (according to other sources, that was done with multiple launch systems that do not distinguish government buildings from housing – P.F.). Panic began in Tskhinvali, and the organized resistance was over. Ossetians could offer only personal courage of single soldiers to well organized and well armed Georgian troops. In the afternoon of 8 August Georgian infantry and tanks entered easily Tskhinvali, eliminating the uncoordinated centers of resistance. The population got to basements, while the city was damaged significantly as a result of shooting and street fighting. No one knows the exact figures of civilian and military casualties by Ossetians. It is especially not known to Ossetian leaders who had fled in advance from the doomed city.          

Although Georgian attack was not intended against Russian peacemakers, they lost 15 killed and up to 150 wounded over the course of shooting and converging fire. During the Georgian attack of 8 August Russian peacemakers stayed passive observers.   

Georgian military spending has multiplied with the factor of 30 during last four years, increasing from 30 million dollars at the last year of Shevardnadze’s rule to 1 billion dollars in 2007, reaching the figure of 9-10% of the GDP. For 2008 the Georgian parliament approved military spending of 800 million dollars. In July the figure was increased up to $1 Bn, and with the war begun the defense spending by Georgia might become over $3 Bn.    

Such a big for Georgia money was spent the following way. The common conscription was stopped and an efficient regular voluntary army with a capacity of 30,000 soldiers was formed. The concept of “total defense” being approved, the corps of reservists, assumed to be 100,000 people, is formed in the US-like way, making it a voluntary National Guard. According to Georgian defense ministry, in May this year up to 40,000 reservists have been trained out of civilian volunteers. There is also an active reserve of 25,000 made up with those who used to be servicemen. At the time being, 4 brigades of National Guard are being formed on the basis of ready territorial battalions. The mobilization of Georgian reservists, announced by Saakashvili on 8 August, is secured completely with the stock of weapons, ammunition and the soviet-time-produced machinery. Mass muster for re-training the reservists has been going on in Georgia since the middle of May. So at the beginning of the large-scale conflict Georgia was in a highly mobilized state. The units of the National Guard may be used for auxiliary defensive-guarding functions. In case of protracted conflict the reservists may be a source of reinforcement for the standing army.          

The Georgian army consists of 6 regular brigades. 4 Georgian infantry brigades are rather autonomous formations with a capacity of 3,300 people each. They consist of 3 infantry battalions of 591 soldiers in each, 1 armoured battalion, 1 artillery battalion, a communication company, a rearward service company, and a field engineer company. Significant part of the personnel of the Georgian infantry has been tried in Iraq where today over 2,000 Georgian soldiers are serving. It was announced on 9 August that the Georgian contingent from Iraq would be transferred back to Georgia with the help from Americans, with the purpose of defense against aggression. On the same day the marshal law was also announced in the country.      

The Georgian infantry brigades are trained mostly for conducting military operations in the mountain-wood landscape; those units are equipped with mortars. The rest of artillery, self-propelled and tugged, also the MLRS are united in one artillery brigade. Relatively small size of the potential seat of war in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, also a dense network of roads enable the Georgian command maneuvering the united in one fist heavy artillery and MLRS, getting fire superiority the right time and place. Exactly such a precise and mass application of artillery has ensured that the Georgian militaries were able to defeat the Ossetian units and factually to seize Tskhinvali, suffering rather low casualties – 30 people stated by Saakashvili, or up to 50 killed according to estimation by the Russian side.            

Georgian special army units are united in the special mission brigade. The Georgian Air Forces consist of 6 squadrons, two of which are transport ones and two shock ones; one is combat-training and one consists of unmanned aircraft. Anti-aircraft missile complexes are gathered within the Air Force, while the army units are equipped with mobile anti-aircraft complexes. A modern operational commanding center for conducting the air war has been created and is functioning. The territory of Georgia, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is covered with single radiolocating field.    

The Georgian interior ministry possesses 15,000 police officers; there are also several special battalions camped in the zone of opposition with Abkhazia and South Ossetia where agreements of cease-fire restrict or prohibit the presence of the army forces. There is also a battalion of the police special unit in Tbilisi, equipped and trained for opposing the mass riots (this unit is of OMON type).      

On the whole, the current organization of Georgian military forces looks well balanced; it corresponds to the state’s opportunities and actual goals. Georgians have bought several tens of unmanned Israeli-made aircraft of different size and purpose. These machines are capable of collecting and transmitting the intelligence data in real time mode, at any time of day and night, including GPS coordinates of targets. Acquired is the Israeli computer system of managing the battle operations; it is coupled with unmanned aircraft. There are also Israeli 155 mm self-propelled howitzers capable of using the data from unmanned aircraft for high-precise shooting with GPS aiming at a range up to 40 km.      

The artillery and the MLRS units of soviet “Grad” type, possessed by Georgians, cannot be integrated directly into the computerized network of modern high-precise application of fire weapons. However, according to Georgian deputy defense minister Batu Kutelia, a possibility of partial integration is being considered which is significant improving the accuracy of shooting with the use of data transmitted by the unmanned aircraft in the real time mode. Georgian commanders affirm they have modernized 7 attack planes Su-25 for using it at night and with bad weather conditions. In the course of attack made on Ossetian positions on 8 August Georgians proved they are able to fight at night time with the back by shock aviation and heavy artillery, when opposing them enemy consists of motley formations. 

Moscow and Tskhinvali have underestimated combat potential of the today’s Georgia. Lightning stroke on the Ossetian separatists got Russian leadership and commandment taken aback. Russia counted that with a certain back up by herself the separatist forces would be able to stop, exhaust and throw back the weak Georgian army. That would look quite decent: separatists fighting, while Russia staying aloof. But on 8 August it became urgent to bring and put into action the 19th Vladikavkaz motorized infantry division with tanks and self-propelled artillery. On 9 August this unit was added with 76 Pskov Airborne troops and the army special unit that are used now as infantry near Tskhinvali. A special Russian operative Staff is set up in Vladikavkaz for coordination of intrusion into Georgia, headed by the Land Forces Commander Vladimir Boldyrev.        

According to President Dmitry Medvedev, our peacemakers and added to them units carried out an operation of coercion of the Georgian side to peace. Actually, the matter is about a large-scale military operation against the neighboring Orthodox country. It is obvious today that Ossetian troops and voluntary units are only useful for performing the auxiliary tasks. According to our officials, our militaries are dislodging the Georgian units beyond the administrative border of the South Ossetia, as if remaining in the zone of responsibility of the peace-maker’s forces. Russian men of airdrop forces and the special units have started the attack on villages around Tskhinvali, populated with Georgians.     

Men-of-war of the Black Sea Fleet have entered the Georgian territorial waters near the Abkhazian shores. Russian air forces have bombed the military, economic and civil targets all over the Georgian territory. In a Black Sea city-resort of Poti 6 people have been killed with Russian bombs; there have been tens killed and wounded at a military base of Senaki in the western Georgia and at the airdrome Vaziani near Tbilisi. In the city of Gori the Russian bombs killed at least 20 civilians. On Saturday our officials admitted having lost 2 aircraft: attack plane Su-25 and supersonic distant missile-carrier and bomber Tu-22M3. One pilot was taken prisoner by Georgians; the others might have been killed. Mr. Kutelia affirms that Georgians have shot down 6 our planes. Also our aircraft have been bombing constantly the upper part of the Kodori gorge on the Abkhazian territory, backing up the clean-up operation. Of course, Abkhazians affirm it’s themselves to be bombing…         

Today, however, the Georgian army is not destroyed and its number and combat capacity would be increasing with further mobilization done. Russian militaries, brought to the South Ossetia, are remaining in the beaten zone, exposed to the Georgian artillery. In October the Caucasian passes will get covered with snow till the end of the next May. And the weather will be always unfavorable for taking flights. That means our militaries might find themselves in a desperate position.