The coming visit by Yulia Timoshenko became known last Friday and was immediately accompanied with rumors that she is going to exchange the prolongation of rent term of the Black Sea Fleet for cheaper prices for gas. The Ukrainian Prime Minister’s camp hurried to disavow the information. Deputy Secretary of the Security Council Boris Sobolev stated that, on the contrary, the Ukrainian prime minister is going to speak about full withdrawal of the Russian Fleet from Sevastopol.  

The foreign ministry, as usual, made a sharper statement. “The question of location of the Russian Black Sea Fleet cannot be subject to bargaining, as it is an executed norm with the term appointed for 28 May 2017” said the foreign ministry speaker Vasily Kirilich.

However, the meaning of the situation is that all those speaking about withdrawal are unlikely to keep their offices up to 2017. Instead, Yulia Timoshenko has good chances to be in the Presidential office at that moment. It cannot be denied also the opportunity for Vladimir Putin to have become the Russian President again by that time. 

Thus, if there is something to discuss with Timoshenko, it’s about long-term plans, not about gas prices or conditions of entering the WTO, as Yulia Timoshenko may resign after a couple of weeks. The Party of Regions is going to introduce the vote of no confidence to her cabinet. Yanukovich’s followers hope that the presidential faction would add the missing votes for that.