Q: What has changed in the construction of power?

A: Actually, there has been little change. It looks like a glass with different substances has been shaken to make the chemical reaction go more effectively. Maybe, the centers of crystallization have moved a bit, but it’s still unclear in which direction the reaction will be developing. Distribution of influence, especially in the economic sphere, about the financial flows, and all what proceeds out of that – enforcement, administrative and document-producing area, influencing this or that decision related to the financial flows – all that has not changed, to my mind.  

The question still stands whether Medvedev will be able to get the real power, if he sets such a super task to himself. Probably, he and his entourage and those who proposed him do not formulate their task this way. If we suppose that he wishes to shift the center of the power crystallization to his side and to create independent area of decision-making, then this question will become sharper with time. But I repeat this is possible only in case of this idea coming to Dmitry Medvedev’s head and to those people from his entourage, like Alexander Voloshin, who was an active supporter of the “Medvedev project”. If those people come to wish to swing the balance of power towards Medvedev’s side, they might begin to talk him into starting some independent game.  

Q: What will be the role by first Deputies Prime Minister Zubkov and Shuvalov, and what might be relations between them?

A: We shouldn’t exaggerate the institution of deputies Prime Minister. In terms of protocol, the status of the first deputy is more important as he is entitled, for example, to chair the government meetings in the absence of Prime Minister and he can sign some papers. But from the point of view of real decision making such a status does not give too much and some additional points of rest are needed. We shall be able to see all that only in the further developments. If some of the deputies Prime Minister, not only the first ones, manage to get the right of real decision making (within the framework of the chaired by them commissions) and to gather people around them and to settle some situations, then it would mean they have someone standing behind them. As for the first deputy Prime Minister label itself, it only gives a potential opportunity of influencing the process of solving problems, and that opportunity is not always realized.    

Q: And what about the published distribution of powers? 

A: The document, signed by the head of government and titled “Distribution of responsibilities between deputies head of the government”, does not contain strict regulations about decision making. Even when you have something written to your post in this document, the mechanism of realization still remains unclear. Of course, you can give commissions. But those commissions, signed by first deputies Prime Ministers are rather weak instrument. The real instrument would be the issued regulations by the government allotting the decision making rights to a particular commission headed by a particular first deputy.  

Q: So it’s useless now trying to see some signs in a simple distribution of powers? 

A: That’s all a disguise, a kind of surface signals that might mislead instead of giving real answers. The fact that Shuvalov has been promoted to the first deputy Prime Minister position is interpreted by many as a victory by the “old family”. But that is no fact. Yes, some signal has been sent. But probably Putin wanted such a surface signal to pass. No one knows what will be in reality.    

Q: And what could be a comment to the “apparatus exchange” between government and President’ Administration: Sobyanin for Naryshkin?   

A: That exchange is featured with absolute lack of functional sense, which means it was caused with the factor of personality exchanges. It appears that someone does not like to see Sobyanin supervised by Medvedev, while Naryshkin suits them in that role. Least of all I see Medvedev himself taking such a decision. I think if he could choose, he would have appointed a man loyal to himself most of all. Neither Sobyanin, nor Naryshkin can be said to belong to such a category. 

Q: Some take it that the fact of Sechin becoming a “simple” deputy Prime Minister, and not the head of the government’s apparatus, to be the sign of agreement between Putin and Medvedev, as it is known that Medvedev and Sechin are not on best terms.

A: That’s all conjectures on the level of gossip. With such a strong Prime Minister, the nominal signs do not matter much. What will really matter is who will be able to come to the Putin’s office more often. And the label of that “coming in” person is of no importance.