Without any preliminary arrangement with Tbilisi Moscow has “had to increase” the Russian contingent in Abkhazia. At least 1,000 soldiers with heavy materiel set off from the Sochi district and crossed the river of Pso. 15 additional observation posts are going to be arranged along the Georgian-Abkhazian border on the river of Inguri. Moscow and Sukhumi consider bringing of additional troops to be lawful and corresponding to the previous cease-fire agreements and those signed within the frames of CIS. According to the latter, up to 3,000 soldiers are allowed to be placed in Abkhazia and it’s only 2,000 soldiers that had been brought there till recently. But Tbilisi calls this bringing the troops to be “potential aggression” and denies its own preparations for attacking Abkhazia. NATO members are also protesting and require the Georgian sovereignty to be respected.   

Inhabited with svans the Upper Kodori is the only part in Abkhazia where the winning in 1993 Abkhazians failed to get the control of. Till summer 2006 the Kodori was controlled by the local svan’s military units who recognized formally the authority by Tbilisi. Then the Georgian militaries carried out a rapid operation and got in direct control over the territory in question. After that Kodori was renamed into “Upper Abkhazia” and so called Abkhazian “government in exile” moved there from Tbilisi. In 1993 the winning Abkhazians ousted almost the entire Georgian population which was up to 50% of the whole population. Actually, Abkhazians as the titular ethnic group had only 20% of the population. The banishment campaign was accompanied with deaths of thousands people. Then up to 50,000 Georgians came back to the deserted Galsky District on the border with Imeretia. According to different estimations, 200-400 thousands refugees from Abkhazia still stay. Allegedly, it’s them who are represented by the Abkhazian “government in exile”.   

The Upper Kodori is a mountainous valley encircled with ridges. Leaving the valley the Kodori River cuts the narrow gorge between the Kodori and the Abkhazian Ridges. This gorge leads to the Lower Kodori controlled by Abkhazians and to the coastal valley to Sukhumi. The gorge is featured with a soviet-times-built road and two Russian peace-making posts. The road is absolutely destroyed and is impassable for heavy materiel. If it is true that Georgians have gathered 1,500 soldiers in the Upper Kodori, this means several hundreds could be able to penetrate the coastal valley using the highland paths. But they wouldn’t be able to bring any heavy materiel there, and so they would be defeated easily by Abkhazians and Russian contingent that are in much bigger number and armed with tanks and artillery. So the statement by Russian foreign ministry about “preparing the foothold for beginning the military operation against Abkhazia” is just ridiculous. Even if the entire Georgian army got collected in the Upper Kodori it would be just impossible to attack Sukhumi from there.

The statements by our authorities on situation in Abkhazia remind of propagandist preparations of Soviet Union attack on Finland in 1939, when poor Finns were also accused of aggression. Now it also was announced that a Georgian unmanned aircraft was shot down by an Abkhazian training L-39 aircraft. Then Kodori was announced to be a foothold for attacking Abkhazia. It is likely that some attack is really being prepared, but not by Georgians.     

At the last-year press conference in Moscow the Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh told that there is a plan of removing Georgian troops from Kodori. The presence of the “government in exile” controlling part of Abkhazian territory is a great annoyance for Sukhumi believing this creates obstacles for Abkhazia to get recognized as a sovereign republic. There is information that Abkhazian military forces are concentrated today in the Lower Kodori. Using the mountainous paths the Abkhazian infantry would be able to pass to Kodori where they would be supported by “unknown” helicopters and aircraft from the Russia’s territory, as it happened before. Besides, howitzers and “Grad” launching machines would be able to shoot at the Georgian troops over the Kodori Ridge, Upper Kodori and the road to Svanetia that was solemnly opened by Saakashvili last year. It only takes attaching smart Russian officers and gunlayers to the Abkhazian units. And while fighting will be going on in Kodori, the reinforced peace makers standing on the River of Inguri would not allow Georgians to strike a flank blow on Abkhazians. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is right – Russia is not going to get in serious war with Georgia, but would like to teach Georgia a lesson.     

It appears to be a concrete intention that proceeds from a wrong premise that a mere threat of getting in war with Russia would make Georgians get dislodged from Kodori without beginning military actions in other fronts. In reality, the failure might be even worse than that with Finns in 1939. Whatever our diplomats and generals stated now about conflict with Georgia, no one in the world would believe them. As for Tbilisi, it got what it always wanted to get – that’s comprehensive international support.