Sunday an unmanned Georgian aircraft Hermes-450 was shot down in Galsky district of Abkhazia, in the zone of coverage by Russian peace-making forces. Garry Kupala, the Abkhazian military deputy minister, stated that the aircraft was brought down by L-39 aircraft belonging to the Air Force of Abkhazia. 

Georgians affirm that the unmanned plane was destroyed by a Russian fighter Mig-29. According to Georgian radars, the fighter took off from the airbase near Gudauta and then went to the Russian territory passing over the Caucasian hump. Georgians published the video made on their unmanned aircraft where one may clearly see the fighter with doubled tail unit characteristic of Mig-29. In that video the fighter shot a missile. The Georgian President Saakashvili called the incident to be an “aggression”.   

Russian military officials affirm that the unmanned aircraft was shot down by Abkhazian air forces and called the accusations by Georgia to be an “invention”. 

The statements by Abkhazians are obviously ridiculous. The profile of L-39 is rather different from profiles of any Russian fighter. Besides, the old 2-seated military-training L-39 Albatross produced in Czechia is meant for “students of flying schools learning the foundations of piloting”.  It is not equipped with a gun or radar. It has no facilities for applying “air-to-air” missiles. It only has two under-wing points for hanging the bombs up to 125 kg and so it can be used as a light and little effective bomber.         

Well, this current story is no news. During Georgian-Abkhazian war of 1992-1993 Abkhazians would report their aviation to bomb successfully their enemy using a motorized hang glider and a couple of L-39 gifted by that-time Chechen President Johar Dudaev. The interested parties were shown a part of the road south of Gudauta that was allegedly used as an improvised landing strip. In reality, the Georgian troops were secretly bombed by Russian military aircraft manned with our flying staff. In September 1994 a Russian pilot told me at the Gudauta airbase that his crew had bombed the Georgians on the plane with the red stars painted over. All that was done by order from the Russian command. Today the Russian airbase is officially considered to be closed down, but no observers from OSCE and no inspectors at all are allowed there.   

After Second Chechen War began the secret air raids and dropping antipersonnel mines renewed on the bordering territories near to Russia. The international observers confirming the raids, Moscow never admitted its fault. In March last year a supposedly Russian bomber Su-24 launched a self-guided missile being over the territory of South Ossetia. A Georgian radar being the target the missile failed to reach it and did not explode. Once again the international experts supported the Georgian version of the events, while Moscow accused Tbilisi of having made a provocation.        

Vladimir Putin has given a commission recently to strengthen the ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which was considered by the unrecognized republics and by Tbilisi as a sign of coming official recognition. At the same time, Putin ordered to call the transport and mail blockade off Georgia itself. So we seem to be trying to carry out carrot-and-stick policy: we can recognize separatist regimes, we can shoot down unmanned aircraft, and no West and no NATO – where Georgia is striving to get – will not be able to help Georgia.    

As far back as October last year the Abkhazian president Bagapsh threatened that they would bring down any unmanned Georgian aircraft, which is impossible without Russian aid. Bagapsh also told about possibility of carrying out a military operation with the purpose of ousting Georgian military units from the Kodori Gorge. The upper part of the gorge remained the only part of Abkhazia out of control by Sukhumi after 1993. The local svans, submitted formally to Tbilisi, had been dominating in the area till 2006 when the Georgian militaries managed to get in control of the territory after a lightning operation. Then so called “Georgian government of Abkhazia in banishment” moved to Kodori from Tbilisi and the road was built to Georgia which is a great annoyance for Sukhumi.      

The information has appeared recently that Abkhazians are gathering forces for cleaning up the Kodori Gorge. Moscow might consider such an operation to be a useful lesson taught to going too far Georgians and might present fire support with ‘unknown flying complexes’ denying officially any involvement. It seems that no one is going to consider the fact that either Russian, or Abkhazian or South Ossetian troops are not ready for a big war in Transcaucasia, and that no one believes our non-participation statements any longer. Well, it’s good time for Saakashvili to become to look like a victim of aggression in the West’s eyes, which may gain him moral, financial and military aid so that to restrain Russia. It may also get him membership in NATO very soon.