Inertia of thinking might be harmful for politicians. If one does not notice the new trends in good time, one may become to face serious problems in the future. Observing the developments in the presidential campaign in the USA and seeing the direction the discussing of the international issues is going on there, it’s easy to notice that the current policy course by Russia towards the West may find itself to get in “inertia trap”. 

Dealing with the current generation of the western leaders ours have managed to create a convenient model of relations. In word there is tough polemics and the accusations can be heard of Russian neo-imperialism, on the one hand, and of intentions to humiliate Russia and of designs for lacerating it, on the other hand. As for practice, the problems, especially those relating to oil and gas matters, are settled in rather a business-like way. Besides, despite the official censure and promises to extend the “orange” revolutions to the East, the West does not really interfere in the Russia’s home policy. Of course, the Russian top elite would also like to get access to gas-distributing networks in Europe. However, even what they already have is enough for successful conduct of business and getting the feeling of sovereignty inside one’s own country.          

The propriety of such a model has even been getting additional confirmation recently. The USA, having met the tough attitude by the Kremlin, seems to be demonstrating more understanding in regards of the Russia’s position about the installation of the anti-missile system in Poland and Czechia. Besides, the western leaders have promised again not to tell Russia what to do.  

What has been happening in America, however, causes more and more doubts rising as to whether such a frame of relations would stay long. In his recent campaigning speech, the Republican contender John McCain admitted the country cannot struggle alone for promotion of democracy in the world. For that, a coalition is needed, something like “a league of democracies”. Along with that, the authoritarian regimes, like those in the Persian Gulf, should not be counted on, even considering they carry out a friendly policy towards the US.        

Proceeding from such a view on the global contradictions, the senator McCain believes it to be reasonable excluding Russia from the G8 and replacing her with other big and democratic players like Brazil and India. And similar ideas were voiced by Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton too.   

If such views – struggling for the good only with “ours”, while minimizing the cooperation with “strangers” – get rooted in the American elite, then the policy by the West towards Russia would change significantly, and the habitual Kremlin’s schemes would stop being effective. In that case the country would either have to give up the demand “accept us like what we are” and to change itself, or to pass to real and not “virtual” confrontation with the excelling partner-adversary.    

It appears that Russian elite is ready for none of the scenarios. It’s obviously impropriate for the country that “has just got off her knees” to change in response to the external pressure. But living under conditions of real confrontation seems to be frightful to the elite that is used to hedonism. In that case its assets, property and nice journeys abroad may be threatened. Besides, the today’s consumer’s high demand would also have to be reduced which might be disapproved by the population. All that might cause various protest actions.   

Alas! All the good and convenient passes some day. So it’s better thinking in advance about new possible challenges and how to get out of all that.