Guests coming to Georgia can see the billboard with a giant figure of Saakashvili and the crowd of happy pygmy-looking electors. The effect of the angle makes you understand at once who the host in this home is. Going along the road from the airport to the city, i.e. the street after George Bush the junior, one may see only campaign placards for Saakashvili. It seems they are stuck to each lamp-post.  

“Where are the rest candidates?” I ask the taxi driver. 

He keeps silence for long. I start to think he forgot Russian or maybe local intellectuals now translate their thoughts into English first and then into Russian.

…Suddenly my driver pulls up near a fence stuck with small A4 format posters showing the candidate for presidency Gamkrelidze (number 3 in the ballot paper).  

“There you are!” the driver says proudly and we keep on moving. I laugh and so does he. We say no more of politics. 

Later I notice that election has stopped being the topic for discussions. This conclusion is confirmed by sociology. All recent polls found that 40-45% of the respondents refuse to answer the question of their political preferences. Never have Georgian people concealed their opinion this way. Sociologists and psychologists believe the fears to be most probable reason for that, the fears that were aggravated after 7 November (the day of tough dispersion of the opposition). And if you keep interrogating such a person, he may tell you to get lost or just lie to you, which is worse.  

Valery, political technology specialist, dislikes his president very much, on emotional level. Valera never refused completing state orders. So in this election he analyzed efficiency of the propaganda campaign for Saakashvili: video clips, slogans, symbols etc.

“Most contenders - Saakashvili, Patarkatsishvili, and Natelashvili first of all– based their programs on material promises” Valery generalizes the situation. “Before his formal resignation Saakashvili had increased pensions, teachers wages and distributed vouchers for paying the gas and electricity bills, subsidized the agriculture from the budget” (they bought, for example, 350 tractors and the brand new machines played important role in the clips for Saakashvili – E.M). Generally, election campaign by Saakashvili affected the country’s budget and the private business, as almost everyone was made to contribute into campaigning Fund of Misha. Many firms delayed paying wages because of it and had difficulties in finding money for that.   

It’s only Patarkatsishvili who was able to compete with Saakashvili in terms of giving promises. Badri said “Saakashvili will raise your pensions and wages taking money from your own pocket (i.e. from the country’s budget – E.M.). And I will do it at my own expense”. Badri promised to spend $ 1.5 Bn of his own means. He promised pensions of $200, he was going to pay the bills of the population for gas and electricity, he promised 2,000 lari (Georgian national currency) for the first born child and 3,000 lari for the second. He was a difficult contender for the authority and harmful comrade for the opposition that was close to him. First, he pulled away the protest votes from Levan Gachechiladze and then, when the authorities managed to cross up Badri himself, he compromised the opposition on the whole.

As a result, Patarkatsishvili and Gachechiladze went separate ways to the election. It should be noted that only united opposition talked to the electors as to people for whom empty stomach did not matter most of all. They did not promise anything to people. All the election campaign by Gachechiladze was based on criticizing the President and his inner circle. Many electors were daunted with lack of real promises.

All the measurements, made on the eve of the election, indicated that no contender was able to win in the first round. On the other hand, the second round would mean the inevitable defeat of the standing authority. The Rubicon had to be crossed anyway.

4th of January was the “silence day”. The general rule, which is observed even in Russia, prohibits any propaganda on this day. And the National Movement, the pro-authority party, made up a pompous convention exactly on that day. The event was broadcast live by Mze TV Company and reportaged by all Georgian TV channels.

All day new yellow route buses with huge photos of Mikhail Saakashvili on boards and the fives on the front and rear windshields went around Tbilisi. The “corporate” number 5 of Misha (he won the previous election being under same number in the ballot papers) became the main symbol of the convention where Misha himself, though, did not say a word about the coming up election.

Half of the people were brought in the buses to the convention from the regions. There were many refugees from Sukhumi and a lot of students. All of them – members of the party – were given red and white caps, scarves, flags and “fives” on the sticks. The uniformed crowd filled the Palace of Sport. A famous Georgian pop-singer had performed first to warm the audience. Every sector had special instructors, guys from the youth organization Kmara, who acted as conductors and signaled the adults and even aged people to shout “Sakartvelo”, “Gaumarjos” and “Misha, Misha, Misha”.  

The leader appeared on time and spoke in husky voice being interrupted with well-provoked by the instructors applause. Clearly and quickly Saakashvili went through the meeting scenario which was intended obviously not for the present people but for the spectacular television picture. Everything had been practiced to second-nature, especially Misha’s approaching the left side of the stage and precise taking out a child from the crowd. The child was a hindrance in his usual gesture-making and after a few minutes Misha tried to put the child back into the crowd.      

“Georgia without poverty” that’s what he spoke about. This was the main and rather successful slogan of Saakashvili’s election campaign. As soon as Misha left the rostrum, people started to get packed in mass into the buses.

The Election Day began with active direct propaganda broadcast by all Georgian TV channels with the exception of small Caucasia channel, which is the last stronghold of the opposition and which is difficult to be tuned to even in Tbilisi due to the noise. Shown were poor Georgians from Ghali who passed the Russian peace-keeping block posts on Abkhazian border using the secret paths (though, being shown with the Rustavi-2 camera crews!). They did it to “vote for Misha, as he is the best”. Well, good move.

The opposition, equipped with hidden cameras and instructions from the main “film director” and active oppositional worker Georgi Khaindrava (below referred to as Goga – E.M.), got assigned over the numerous polling stations. The opposition was making its own movie, but it wouldn’t be shown on Georgian TV channels.

There were huge lines in all polling stations in Tbilisi. The voting went on slowly. People were allowed in only one by one and many just didn’t have time to give their votes even after staying all day in the wet snowfall.

The choice was splitting people. There were many people who could not decide. An acquaintance of mine, Keti by name, went to the polling station with her husband. She said to him she had voted for Gachechiladze. In reality she ticked against the Misha’s name. She confessed it to me as a big secret as her husband hates Saakashvili because he had lost his business during his reign.  

By 5 p.m. I had come to Lermontov Street where largest Georgian sociological organizations made exit poll with the order form four Georgian TV channels. The story of that exit poll is rather curious. At the beginning, the sociologists applied to the US ambassador Tefft with the request of financing of such a poll. He refused and then they found no other foreign sponsor. The idea revived when the rumor appeared that Berezovsky, who is Badri’s friend, had hired some political technology specialists from Ukraine, that’s some unknown information-analytical center Obshcheevropeiskoe Delo (European Common Cause). Georgian public opinion got agitated after first ratings published by the Ukrainians.     

According to their data, Gachechiladze was leading and Patarkatsishvili was getting high scores. And then the four pro-government TV channels sponsored urgently four pro-government sociological organizations that were to give a response to Berezovsky through the honest polling made on the election day.  

When I arrived at the head-quarters of the official exit poll makers it was known that in Tbilisi Saakashvili had lost while the candidate from opposition Gachechiladze had won. Same data were coming from other large Georgian cities. By the way, Central Elective Commission held this information back till 6 January when new data were received from the regions where Saakashvili won convincingly. And only then the TV channels gave the news about Tbilisi, having mixed the figures.

At the head-quarters I talked to Gigi Tevzadze, rector of the institute that took part in the exit polling. He was sure about Saakashvili’s victory.

“I have no doubts there will be no second round” said Gigi. “And I myself voted for Saakashvili”. 

“Does anyone who are carrying out the exit poll have same opinion?” 

“Yes, mainly. But that doesn’t mean that our exit poll will be biased.”

Being in doubts I asked a tactless question:

“Did you become the rector at Saakashvili?”

At that moment an acquaintance of mine, sociologist Irakly, appeared and pushed me away from the angry Gigi.

“The exit poll is absolutely unbiased and you took the bad tone speaking to the scholar” said Irakly laughing.

At 8 p.m. all the polling stations got closed and there came a stir in the headquarters. It turned out that the Ukrainian political technologists were giving a press conference about the results of their exit poll. According to them, no one had got 50% but Gachechiladze was leading with 30% of votes. “My” exit poll makers swore aloud and called the Ukrainians rogues. Gigi said indignantly “Tell me, what is their method and what is their base? Nothing is known! They just sucked all that from the thumb!” 

Nonetheless, the situation made “my” scholars to take non-scientific actions. They called up hastily their own press conference and gave the data as of 5 January at 6 p.m. The data were incomplete and moreover the sociologists began to cheat like it was done by those Ukrainians. There were the following figures announced: 53% for Saakashvili, 26% for Gachechiladze and 0.9 - 6 % for other candidates. 23% of those who refused answering the exit poll questions were just “lost” intentionally. 

“It’s most probable these are people who voted against Saakashvili but were afraid of saying about it” explained Irakly to me. “It’s unbiased not to consider this figure which, being interpreted in a correct way, can speak for a stable threat of the second round. But they just do not dare to speak about such probability on TV channels”.  

Well, that’s too bad.

Actually, it was the outcomes of that exit poll, to put it exactly the announced 53% in favor of the candidate number 5, that allowed Saakashvili’s campaigning headquarters to announce their victory and celebrate it just one hour after the polling stations were closed. That made the opposition furious who were calling to wait till the calculation was over. But speaking in an objective way, who made up all that mess? Ukrainians! 

Alas! All that fuss did not confuse observers from OSCE who recognized hastily the election to be legitimate on the next day and called the opposition to submit. 

The opposition got calmed for the Christmas but it did not submit. 8 January a huge crowd of reporters gathered near Central Elective Commission, or CEC, office being informed about aggressive plans by Levan Gachechiladze and his fellows. They had decided to go to CEC with bunches of falsified protocols and ballot papers. 

All of them were allowed in, although formally it was only the contender himself who had the right to get in. By the way, he himself walked with difficulty and limped. He probably had slipped on the icy surface. It had been snowing in Tbilisi since 5 January and the city turned into a complete trauma-causing skating-rink and the fountains made by Saakashvili’s order, so admired by the guests and disliked by the locals, had turned into abstract icy sculptures looking rather spectacular... 

After Gachechiladze’s arrival CEC office began to resemble the bazaar. The reporters encircled the opposition members closely. The CEC chair Levan Tarkhnishvili was found in the back room talking excitingly on the cellular and standing between the computer and refrigerator.

“Taking advice..” said with contempt the opposition member Koba Davitashvili who had made himself comfortable in a cozy seat in the CEC chair’s armchair. 

The CEC chair was brought up to the pitiless cameras. Levan Tarkhnishvili, reminding in somewhat our Alexander Veshnyakov (not Churov, I don’t know why) appealed to the reporters “Did you see that? Did you see I’m being abused physically?” 

Levan Gachechiladze, who had been put into one tight circle with Tarkhnishvili, swore in the Georgian language. 

I asked Davitashvili what he was saying.

“That’s untranslatable play of words” Koba said.

In this flow of hot Georgian expressions I only could distinguish the names of Nino Burdjanadze and Saakashvili. Nothing was seen. Desperately, I took out a newspaper, put it on the sofa and mounted it shyly. Then I got to the back of the sofa and then on the sill. From there I could see imposingly-looking man, Levan Gachechiladze, giving expressively his point of view about CEC working and the CEC chair trying to keep his face with his arms crossed on the chest.    

“Speak English!” cried out some of foreigners who were in majority there and could not stand the tension any longer.

“Speak Russian!” I cried out too.

“I will get it that the second round be done!” Gachechiladze concluded in Russian his igneous speech.

At that moment all our crowd rushed from the Tarkhnishvili’s office to the briefing room. The crowd nearly swept the refined Salome Zurabiashvili (candidate for Prime Minister post from the opposition). After everyone had taken a seat and prepared for the briefing by the opposition, the room was unexpectedly entered by CEC chair Levan Tarkhnishvili. David Berdzenishvili, leader of the Republic Party, gave him the seat. Tinatin Khidasheli, female activist of the opposition and experienced lawyer, laid the protocols from polling stations before Levan and began to show to journalists how they were falsified. In particular, it was done through insertion of the “right” protocols or through purely technical “amending” figures in the protocols by hand. For example, in one of the protocols, where 175 votes were given for Misha, someone just put “1” before the figure. It’s clearly seen as the “1” is inserted into a square with a cross. This way the general figure in this protocol became 1,175 votes for Saakashvili.     

“We have similar data from 17 elective districts of Georgia. We are ready to prove at the moment that 110,000 votes were added illegally in favor of Mikhail Saakashvili. We have information that even in Kvemo-Kartli (this is where Azerbaijani community lives – E.M.) and in Akhalkalaki (where Armenian community resides – E.M.) there have been serious juggling. For example, in Akhalkalaki 100% of votes were given in favor of Saakashvili. This is ridiculous! People didn’t even go the polling stations there. We have the video!”  

David Berdzenishvili took out a notebook computer and put it before Tarkhnishvili. He played the record from which the chair of CEC shrank back saying “such protocols are easy to printed on Xerox. This is no evidence!” 

Great noise began after those words. Gachechiladze began to cry so intensively that his Kakheti cap nearly came off his head. 

Khaindrava poured out some papers on the table from a bag. It turned out to be ballot papers with blue sheets of paper bearing questions of plebiscite. Both ballot papers and blue sheets had ticks in advantage of Saakashvili and NATO. The reverse of the documents was signed by the chair of the polling station and stamped. The ballot papers were authentic and they were stolen by opposition representatives from the draw of the member of the elective commission who represented National Movement and who was to put the papers in his polling station.

“Could you explain how it can be?” I asked Levan Tarkhnishvili.  

“I will explain it now” CEC chair promised…and escaped.   

At 4.30 p.m. the meeting of foreign ambassadors with the opposition began in the Marriott Hotel. Tinatin Khidasheli told me “we didn’t try to convince, we just informed”. Judging from the adamant expression on Mr Tefft’s face and his unusual leaving through the back door, the ambassadors did not show much sympathy. Practically, it was sounded by the Ambassador of France. He pushed himself into the hall crammed with reporters and said with a chortle “the opposition states it is acting under conditions of informational blockade. Though, presence of media members and their quantity disprove those statements. Let us hope other claims by opposition are exaggerated too”.

Then the French Ambassador read aloud the resolution text printed from the Internet, where OSCE’s conclusions were repeated stating that western community considers the passed election to be “a serious step on Georgia’s way to democracy”. 

“In 2003 OSCE recognized the victory by Shevardnadze’s party in parliament election” grinned Tinatin Khidasheli.

“Are the ambassadors talking you into calming down?” I asked straightforwardly.  

“I cannot comment this question”. Tinatin kept silence for a while and then failed to contain herself “Just let them try!” 

“Why does the West insist on Mikhail Saakashvili’s staying the Georgian President?” I asked Salome Zurabiashvili.

“It’s because these diplomats, and many of them are my friends, have been suggested that if opposition will come to power, Georgia will fall into instability. The ambassadors have become trapped by this fear and they are willing to turn a blind eye to the crimes against democracy. I more count on the Georgian people than on the West. After 5 January Mikhail Saakashvili became the president of the provinces and it was done with not pure methods. Large cities have voted against him. This election makes us confident about the great support from our people. But we won’t wait till the parliament election, as it is advised by the western community. No parliament election is possible for us until we manage to get the second round of the presidential election.”   

(To be continued)

In the mean time

Unlikely 2003, the Russia’s influence is not felt at all in the political crisis of 2007-2008. The Russian Ambassador takes part in all state holidays’ celebrations, especially religious ones, but he has given no comment of the events of these days.

And yet Russia has managed to shake Georgia. 

It was done again by Gennady Onishchenko who stated that his agency “is ready to give its proposals in the same way it was done in respect of Moldavia”. That’s about returning Georgian Borzhomi (mineral water) and wines to our shops. That news became sensational on the day – 7 January. 

Even the coverage of the Orthodox Christmas festivities, which are celebrated equally pompous and solemn in both countries, gave in to these good tidings.