The experts believe that dealing with inflation is going to be one of the main tasks of the new cabinet. However, the members of the cabinet do not appear to think so. At least imitation of struggle being noticeable at the beginning of the year, now it seems to be forgotten. Freezing having been over since 1st of May, no new suggestions of dealing with price rise have been voiced. Instead, it has been decided to raise tariffs for services by communal and housing services and natural monopolies. And Viktor Zubkov, who signed that regulation nearly on his last day in the prime minister’s office, remained to work in the government and was even given the rank of the first deputy prime minister.      

Unfreezing came rather smoothly in most regions. It was so due to the fact the prices for most items had gone up significantly even before the 1st of May. Besides, the effect of freezing was not much perceptible: it’s not only that the goods of minor demand were included in the list of socially important items, but it was also difficult to find those items in the shops.     

“One may get an impression that the “Sedmoi Continent” (fittingly, Seventh Continent) is the only network to have signed ‘freezing agreement'” is indignant Evgeny Nadorshin, the senior economist of IB “Trust”. “But even there I did not find the items prices for which were frozen. From the point of view of the line, naturally, the producers had fixed and non-fixed positions. The former went up so that it be possible to keep up the standard price for the latter without general loss. As a result, we had the situation where prices for essential items rose constantly for most consumers from August last year to May this year. In fact, the government has not done anything except talking.” 

According to Evgeny Nadorshin, we are not ready yet for market instruments of regulating the prices: “The money market is too much relaxed. The Central Bank with its rates and the market do not coincide. When the Bank’s rates matter nothing for the market players, it’s rather impossible to control inflation with it. So strengthening the ruble remains the only remedy. But Central Bank wants to stimulate the economic growth and the strengthened ruble is no good for that purpose”. 

According to this specialist’s forecast, the rates of inflation are to get reduced in the second half of the year. The harvest is expected to be good, while the monetary pressure is going to be rather low. So it only remains to hope for all that. 

And in the meanwhile it’s only liberalization of tariffs for communal and housing services and those of natural monopolies that is suggested, which will make inflation rate go up. In other words, the communal services, and our bills for the electricity, gas and the railroad prices will be going up in a forestalling manner next three years.   

“Three years ago a very important and very wrong decision was taken about regulating the communal and housing services tariffs on the federal level” recalls Igor Nikolaev, the director of strategic analysis department of FBK Company. “That decision caused the situation where we returned to the mode of accelerated indexation just after a couple of years”.   

According to this analyst, while this year it is expected the average increase of communal and housing tariffs for 20%, next year they might be planned to increase for 25%.  

“I’m afraid the picture will be rather unpleasant” warns the senior economist of IB “Trust”. “Taking responsibility for the rise of tariffs, authorities must change something for the good. And now it turns out that they actually admit inability of making any positive changes in the communal and housing sector and working of the natural monopolies”.  

Elena Matrosova, the director of macroeconomic studies at the BDO Unicon Company, considers that as it takes big money to carry out the modernization of the communal and housing complex, energy sector and railroad transport, this is going to be done at the expense of the end consumers. “I wouldn’t like giving comments on the actions by the government, but it is obvious that the rise of tariffs will have a negative effect on the economy, and on inflation among all.”   

It shall be reminded that the index of the consumer’s prices has exceeded the 5% point and is expected to be two-digit at the end of the year.  

It is unlikely that the picture changes next year, even if the global increase of the food product prices is stopped. Our inner inflation factors – and the price rise for the products of the natural monopolies causes inevitably the same for the rest – will make the task of struggling with inflation to be irrelevant for Vladimir Putin’s government, which will make it necessary looking for other more real priorities.